Nowflation › Release calendar › June 2026 jobs report

June 2026 jobs report: +31K — Graded

Countdown

Released Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

  • Prior: payrolls +129K in May 2026.
  • Street consensus: +110K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% in May 2026.
  • Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for June 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for June 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

ForecasterCallMiss
Street consensus (closest)+110K+79K
Prior month (naive)+129K+98K

Grading

June 2026 payrolls +31K (reported July 2, 2026), unemployment 4.2% (prior +129K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.

Related: Jobs and wages · Real wages · Series PAYEMS · Release calendar