Nowflation › Release calendar › January 2026 jobs report

January 2026 jobs report: +160K — Graded

Countdown

Released Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: payrolls +48K in December 2025.
Street consensus: +70K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Unemployment rate: 4.4% in December 2025.
Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for January 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for January 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	+70K	−90K
Prior month (naive)	+48K	−112K

Grading

January 2026 payrolls +160K (reported February 11, 2026), unemployment 4.3% (prior +48K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.