Nowflation › Release calendar › February 2026 jobs report

February 2026 jobs report: −156K — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, March 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior: payrolls +126K in January 2026.
Street consensus: +59K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
Unemployment rate: 4.3% in January 2026.
Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for February 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for February 2026. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Street consensus (closest)	+59K	+215K
Prior month (naive)	+126K	+282K

Grading

February 2026 payrolls −156K (reported March 6, 2026), unemployment 4.4% (prior +126K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.