December 2025 jobs report: −17K — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, January 9, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

• Prior: payrolls +56K in November 2025.
• Street consensus: +60K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
• Unemployment rate: 4.5% in November 2025.
• Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for December 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for December 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

Grading

December 2025 payrolls −17K (reported January 9, 2026), unemployment 4.4% (prior +56K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.

Related: Jobs and wages · Real wages · Series PAYEMS · Release calendar