Nowflation › Release calendar › August 2025 jobs report

August 2025 jobs report: −70K — Graded

Countdown

Released Friday, September 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

  • Prior: payrolls +79K in July 2025.
  • Street consensus: +75K payrolls (FMP economic calendar estimate).
  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% in July 2025.
  • Nowflation: no payroll nowcast is on record for August 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

The Nowflation call

No payroll nowcast is on record for August 2025. Watch average hourly earnings against the Gauge: real wages are the inflation story in this report.

Competing forecasts

ForecasterCallMiss
Street consensus (closest)+75K+145K
Prior month (naive)+79K+149K

Grading

August 2025 payrolls −70K (reported September 5, 2025), unemployment 4.3% (prior +79K). Source: BLS, from series PAYEMS (monthly change) and UNRATE.

Related: Jobs and wages · Real wages · Series PAYEMS · Release calendar