July 2025 CPI: 2.7% — who called it
The July 2025 CPI print landed at 2.7% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Nowflation Model (in-house). Every forecaster below was on the record before the release and is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 2.7%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 2.73% | +0.025pp |
| Street consensus | 2.80% | +0.100pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 3.1%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 3.04% | -0.061pp |
| Street consensus | 3.00% | -0.100pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.2%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.16% | -0.040pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.20% | 0.000pp |
Core CPI MoM: actual 0.3%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.24% | -0.061pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.30% | 0.000pp |
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 43 | 0.088pp | — | — | 0.088pp (43) |
| Cleveland Fed | 43 | 0.106pp | — | — | 0.106pp (43) |
| Kalshi Market | 2 | 0.181pp | — | — | 0.181pp (2) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 2 | 0.208pp | — | — | 0.208pp (2) |
| Nowflation Model | 2 | 0.292pp | 39 | 0.085pp | 0.095pp (41) |
Live = scoreboard rows frozen at grading time, ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
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