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Smoothed recession probability

Latest value: 0.62% for August 2026, −0.24 pp from a year earlier (against August 2025). 128 monthly observations from January 2016 to August 2026, in percent. Source: FRED (FRED route); context series, not an input to the Nowflation CPI Gauge.

Latest observations

PeriodValue
August 20260.62%
July 20260.24%
June 20260.10%
May 20260.12%
April 20260.10%
March 20260.08%
February 20260.04%
January 20260.20%
December 20250.30%
November 20250.56%
October 20250.90%
September 20250.82%

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Cite: Nowflation, “Smoothed recession probability” (RECPROUSM156N), data from FRED, retrieved October 18, 2026, https://nowflation.com/series/RECPROUSM156N. The series at its source: FRED.

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