The July 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 2.7% year over year on August 12, 2025 (prior 2.7%, Street consensus 2.8%, surprise −0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Cleveland Fed. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 3.1% (consensus 3.0%, prior 2.9%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.73% | 2.7% | +0.025pp |
| Street consensus | 2.8% | 2.7% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 3.04% | 3.1% | −0.061pp |
| Street consensus | 3.0% | 3.1% | −0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.16% | 0.2% | −0.040pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.24% | 0.3% | −0.061pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.000pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.63% on the eve of the print and 2.72% the day after (+0.090pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.07pp to +0.02pp; the CPI Tracker 2.64% → 2.64%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · July 2025 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.