The August 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 2.9% year over year on September 11, 2025 (prior 2.7%, Street consensus 2.9%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 3.1% (consensus 3.1%, prior 3.1%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.4% vs 0.3% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2.84% | 2.9% | −0.059pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 3.05% | 3.1% | −0.048pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.30% | 0.4% | −0.095pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.4% | −0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.25% | 0.3% | −0.049pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.000pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.88% on the eve of the print and 3.07% the day after (+0.190pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.02pp to +0.17pp; the CPI Tracker 2.86% → 3.03%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · August 2025 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.