Economic analysis. Data through September 14, 2026.
Every year the IRS does something no survey can match. It takes the full universe of tax returns, compares each filer’s address YoY and publishes exactly how many people moved between every pair of states along with how much adjusted gross income (AGI) moved with them. It’s not a poll and it’s not an estimate. It’s the actual tax base changing addresses. I’ve been posting about what this data shows for New York and one of those posts passed 800,000 views back in March, so I want to lay the full picture out in one place.
The decade: $111 billion walked out
Between 2011 and 2021 New York lost $111 billion in net AGI to other states which was the worst outflow in the country. California lost $102 billion and Illinois lost $63 billion over the same stretch. The money didn’t vanish. Florida gained $196 billion and Texas gained $54 billion. A net 1.76 million more people left New York than arrived from other states over that decade and they took their incomes, their businesses and their future tax payments with them.
| State | Net AGI moved, 2011 to 2021 |
|---|---|
| New York | −$111 billion |
| California | −$102 billion |
| Illinois | −$63 billion |
| Texas | +$54 billion |
| Florida | +$196 billion |
Table 1. Net adjusted gross income gained or lost through state-to-state moves over the decade, IRS Statistics of Income migration files as compiled by the NTU Foundation.
The latest year looks the same
The newest IRS files cover moves between 2022 and 2023. New York lost another $9.9 billion in net AGI which trailed only California’s $11.9 billion. Florida gained $20.6 billion in a single year. Texas took in $5.5 billion and South Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona and Tennessee each netted between roughly $2.8 billion and $4 billion. New York also lost a larger share of its population to other states than any state in the country at 0.8%.
| State | Net AGI moved, 2022 to 2023 |
|---|---|
| California | −$11.9 billion |
| New York | −$9.9 billion |
| Texas | +$5.5 billion |
| Florida | +$20.6 billion |
Table 2. The newest IRS release. South Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona and Tennessee each netted roughly $2.8 billion to $4 billion.
What stands out in the New York detail is the breadth. This wasn’t just hedge fund managers decamping to Palm Beach. New York recorded net income losses in every single bracket from the bottom of the distribution to the top. At the county level Queens lost more than 17,000 net filers in a single year which was the second biggest loss of any county in America, and the Bronx, Suffolk and Nassau all ranked in the national top ten.
A million people, but headcount isn’t the story
Since 2020 more than a million more residents have left New York for other states than moved in from them according to Census Bureau estimates which is the largest domestic migration loss of any state. International immigration has kept the headline population from collapsing but headcount isn’t the tax base. The people leaving earn more on average than the people replacing them and the IRS files put dollars on that difference every year. Part of the pull is simple cost. Rent and home prices in the metros people are leaving for run far below what New Yorkers pay.
Why the math is so unforgiving
Here’s the part that turns a migration story into a budget story. Personal income tax is New York’s largest revenue source and the state collected nearly $61 billion of it in fiscal 2025 which grew from about $54 billion the year before. The state’s own Tax Department data shows who actually pays it. Millionaire filers were less than 1% of all taxpayers in 2024 and they paid 44.6% of the entire personal income tax according to the state’s preliminary 2024 data. The top 200 filers in the state paid 7.7% by themselves. The top half of taxpayers paid 99.8% which leaves the bottom half covering 0.2%. Millionaires also account for more than 75% of all reported capital gains which means the state’s biggest revenue line moves with the stock market.
That concentration cuts both ways. During the 2007 to 2009 crash the taxable incomes of New York’s top 1% fell 37% in two years which is what a revenue base built on capital gains does in a bear market. A tax system this top-heavy is exposed to two separate risks at once. The rich can have a bad year and the rich can leave.
The millionaires are leaving and multiplying at the same time
Both of these things are true and honest analysis requires holding them together. The state set a record with 99,404 millionaire returns in 2024 which jumped 14.6% from 86,710 the year before. At the same time the Tax Department’s own migration data shows millionaires changing their address out of New York every single year, about 1,300 in 2019, over 3,300 in 2020, roughly 2,700 in 2021, another 2,300 in 2022 and close to 1,700 in 2024. Bull markets mint new millionaires in New York faster than the state loses them. The problem shows up in the share. New York held about 12% of America’s millionaires in 2013 and 8.7% by 2022. The Citizens Budget Commission measured the slide against New York’s 2010 share and puts the cost at more than $13 billion in foregone income tax in 2022 alone. New York doesn’t need millionaires to disappear for the budget to feel it. It just needs them to keep choosing Florida at the margin.
| Tax year | Millionaire filers who moved out of New York |
|---|---|
| 2019 | about 1,300 |
| 2020 | over 3,300 |
| 2021 | roughly 2,700 |
| 2022 | about 2,300 |
| 2024 | close to 1,700 |
Table 3. Millionaire returns changing address out of New York, from the state Tax Department's migration statistics. New York still set a record 99,404 millionaire returns in 2024.
What the data doesn’t say
I’ll be straight about the limits since this dataset gets abused by both sides. The IRS files tell you who moved and what they earned. They don’t tell you why anyone moved. Research from groups like the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities finds taxes aren’t the primary driver for most movers, and plenty of the outflow is retirees, remote workers chasing square footage and families chasing cheaper housing. All of that is real. It also doesn’t change the arithmetic. Whatever the motive, when a filer paying seven figures in state income tax swaps Manhattan for Miami, Albany’s budget takes the full hit. Motives are debatable. The revenue is not.
The 2026 fight and the road ahead
This is the backdrop for the budget fight that just played out. Facing a $5.4 billion city budget gap, Mayor Mamdani asked Albany for a 2% income tax surcharge on millionaires, corporate tax increases and a cut in the estate tax exemption from $7.35 million to $750,000 with a 50% top rate. Governor Hochul refused to raise income taxes and the final May budget closed the gap with a new pied-à-terre tax on non-primary homes above $5 million, a $1.6 billion pension payment delay and state aid. The big swings at the tax base didn’t pass. The direction of the asks tells you where the pressure points are for the next cycle.
The estate tax deserves its own mention here since it’s the one New York tax you can erase entirely by moving. In a companion piece I broke down how the estate tax cliff works and why estates just over $7.35 million get hit hardest (can be read here). Dying a Florida resident instead of a New York resident on a $7.75 million estate is worth about $739,000 to your heirs. When 44.6% of your income tax comes from 99,404 households and the final bill on their estates is optional based on address, every year of tax policy is a retention decision whether Albany frames it that way or not.