Smoothed recession probability

Latest value: 0.6 as of 2026-06-01, +233.3% year over year. 126 monthly observations from 2016-01 to 2026-06. Source: FRED — public data, full history downloadable as JSON on this page. Part of the Nowflation open directory.

DateValue
2026-06-010.6
2026-05-010.32
2026-04-010.3
2026-03-010.3
2026-02-010.18
2026-01-010.34

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