US inflation today: 3.03% year-over-year (Nowflation Realtime, measured as of 2026-09-18 from live market prices where they exist — a measurement, not a forecast), versus the official BLS CPI of 3.4% (August 2026 print). Nowflation Realtime runs below official CPI by 0.37pp. Rents on new leases are up 0.93% YoY in the latest data while CPI's shelter index is up 2.02%. The Nowflation CPI Gauge, which estimates what CPI would read with its inputs refreshed today, reads 3.36%, a gap of −0.04pp to the print. The CPI Gauge's 3-month annualized pace (seasonally adjusted) is 3.05%, its 1-month pace 7.11% — what today's prices are doing, net of last year's base. What CPI will print: the Nowflation Forecast for the September 2026 CPI (released October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET) is 3.52%, pre-registered and graded after the print; the in-house model alone reads 3.33%. Cumulatively, prices are up 36.6% since January 2018, our base period.
Today's read: Nowflation Realtime reads 3.03% YoY, up 0.027pp on the day as motor fuel adds 0.027pp. What moved Nowflation Realtime since 2026-09-17: motor fuel +0.027pp (new input for 2026-09-18). Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.03% YoY, up 0.03pp on the day and 0.22pp on the week, with fuel adding 0.027pp as pump prices push motor fuel's annual rate to 40.78%. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.36% YoY, up 0.027pp on the day, 0.127pp on the week, and 0.191pp on the month. Motor Fuel leads gauge inputs, up 0.68% on the day, 4.03% on the week, 9.35% on the month, 40.78% YoY, contributing 1.96bps; Shelter: Owned adds 0.19% on the month at 3.08% YoY. The Gauge sits 0.04pp below the official August print of 3.4% YoY, pointing to a September Nowflation Forecast of 3.523% versus Street's 3.7% consensus; the in-house model reads 3.332%. Forward fuel at $4.547 versus $4.468 spot signals a 7.9-cent pump increase ahead.
Last graded call: the August 2026 CPI. Nowflation Forecast 3.34%, actual 3.4%, miss −0.06pp (pre-registered before the print). Live calls graded: 2 since June 2026, mean absolute error 0.23pp. The scoreboard.
| Index | Nowflation YoY | Official YoY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (Nowflation CPI Gauge, measured 2026-09-18) | 3.36% | 3.4% (2026-08) | -0.04pp (gauge reading on 2026-09-18 minus the latest official print (2026-08)) |
| Core CPI (Nowflation Forecast for the 2026-09 print) | 2.25% | 2.4% (2026-08, latest print, reference only) | no gap: no official value for that print yet |
| Supercore (svcs ex-shelter) (Nowflation CPI Gauge, measured 2026-09-18) | 2.57% | — | — |
| PCE (PCE-weighted gauge) (Nowflation CPI Gauge, measured 2026-09-18) | 3.35% | 3.7% (2026-07) | -0.35pp (gauge reading on 2026-09-18 minus the latest official print (2026-07)) |
| Core PCE (Fed 2% target) (Nowflation Forecast for the 2026-08 print) | 3.27% | 3.34% (2026-07, latest print, reference only) | no gap: no official value for that print yet |
| Component | Our YoY | BLS YoY | CPI weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | 2.1% | 2.8% | 7.8% |
| Shelter: Owned | 3.2% | 3.1% | 26.2% |
| Motor Fuel | 29.4% | 29.4% | 2.9% |
| Used Vehicles | 1.3% | -2.3% | 2.8% |
| New Vehicles | 2.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% |
| Food at Home | 2.6% | 2.1% | 8.3% |
| Food Away | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
| Electricity | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Utility Gas | 4.3% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Medical Care | 1.7% | 1.6% | 8.4% |
| Apparel | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Recreation | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| Education & Comm | 0.5% | 2.1% | 5.9% |
| Transportation Services | 2.9% | 2.5% | 6.3% |
| Lodging Away | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Household Furnishings | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.3% |
| Water, Sewer & Trash | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Alcohol | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Personal Care | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Tobacco | 6.7% | 6.3% | 0.4% |
| Residual (core proxy) | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
Nowflation Realtime measures the prices being set in the US economy today: live market prices where a credible source exists (Zillow ZORI (all homes, SA) and Apartment List national rent (new leases) and Zillow ZORI (all homes, SA) and Apartment List national rent (new leases) for shelter, AAA pump prices, Manheim used-vehicle values and Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle prices), and the latest official BLS subindex, labeled as held, for every other component, across the 21 CPI components weighted to the CPI basket. It is not tuned to match CPI or any other index. The Nowflation CPI Gauge keeps CPI's own construction, including the slow roll-over of existing leases, and estimates what official CPI would read with its inputs refreshed today; it feeds the forecast. Behind both sits an open directory of 1,707 public series from 33 sources (BLS, BEA, EIA, USDA, Treasury, FRED and the market feeds above), every one downloadable. Live readings from 2026-09-15 are stored as published and never rewritten. Values before that date are a reconstruction under method v2.0. Nowflation CPI Gauge: method frozen at v1.4 on September 8, 2026. Archived readings were recomputed under v1.4 on that date, as logged on /corrections. They have not changed since. Our CPI Nowflation Forecast is graded publicly after every print alongside the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. Rents: Data Provided by Zillow Group; Apartment List, Apartment List National Rent Report. Updated every morning before the US market open; this snapshot published September 18, 2026 at 11:14 PM ET.
Related: Why inflation moved today · The CPI forecast · Why the gap · My inflation · The scoreboard